‹ Pattern Group
Ch 6 · The Concentration Cliff
The Finale · Risk
Two concentrations. Both named in the filings.
✦ The bottom line
Pattern's largest customer is also its largest competitor: Amazon. Pattern's most critical employees are also each other's spouses. The 10-K lists both. Neither is hidden.
↓ the brief below
Revenue dependent on Amazon · fiscal year 2025
~70
%
Approximate share of net revenue derived from Amazon's marketplaces (US + international). If Amazon changes its policies, raises fees, or restricts third-party sellers, Pattern's business shifts overnight.
Source · 10-K · Revenue Disaggregation by Marketplace · FY2025 · Filed Mar 6, 2026
From the 10-K · the Amazon dependency in Pattern's own words
We are highly dependent on Amazon. Our relationship with Amazon, including the terms upon which Amazon makes its marketplace and services available to us, is a material aspect of our business. Any change in Amazon's policies, practices, fees, or its actions in respect of our accounts could have a material adverse effect on our business.
↳ Pattern is, structurally, an Amazon-dependent business. They've worked to diversify (Walmart, TikTok Shop, ~150 marketplaces) — and the diversification is real — but the single largest revenue source is still the *one platform that could rewrite the rules tomorrow*.
Source · 10-K · Risk Factors — Customer & Channel · FY2025 · Filed Mar 6, 2026
✦ Teach me
When the founders are also a couple
Pattern's CEO and Chief Strategy Officer are married. They co-founded the business and still run it together. That's the operational risk — if they separate professionally or personally, both roles need to be replaced at once. This isn't speculation: Pattern itself disclosed it as a risk factor in the 10-K. The market knows. The question is whether the market is pricing it in.
Wall Street calls this
Key-person + dual-key concentration
Most key-person risks are about *one* executive. Pattern's is about *two* — and their lives are intertwined. That's a different shape of risk.
From the 10-K · the founder concentration in Pattern's own words
We are highly dependent on the services of David Wright, our Chief Executive Officer and co-founder, and Melanie Alder, our Chief Strategy Officer and co-founder, who are married to each other. The separation or divorce of our co-founders in the future could adversely affect our business.
↳ Pattern filed this themselves — meaning their lawyers think it's a real-enough risk to call out to investors. Read it as: the leadership concentration is structural. The lockup expires March 9, 2026 — watch what they do, not what they say.
Source · 10-K · Risk Factors — Personnel & Key Persons · FY2025 · Filed Mar 6, 2026
Watch
Two concentrations: ~70% Amazon-dependent, founder-couple-dependent. Both named in the filing.
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Chapter 6 · RISK
The Concentration Cliff
you now read: evidence-based prediction
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