AST's risks are the textbook moonshot risks: it barely earns revenue, loses hundreds of millions, will likely need to raise more money (diluting owners), must launch dozens more satellites successfully — and Starlink is chasing the same prize.
↓ the brief below
The gap · last year's net loss
-$342
M
AST lost $342M in 2025 on minimal revenue. The entire investment case is a future that requires years more spending to arrive.
Source · 10-K · Statements of Operations (net loss) · FY2025 · Filed Mar 2, 2026
From the 10-K · the company's own warning
We have a history of losses and may never become profitable. … There can be no assurance that we will be able to raise additional funds when needed or on favorable terms or at all.
↳ AST says it plainly: it may never make money, and it will likely need to raise more — which usually means issuing new shares that dilute existing owners.
Source · 10-K · Risk Factors — history of losses; need for additional capital · FY2025 · Filed Mar 2, 2026
✦ Teach me
When everything has to go right
AST's plan requires launching dozens more satellites, each unfolding a giant antenna, all working together — then signing up paying users at scale. Rockets fail, hardware breaks, timelines slip. A single missed step can reset the clock while the cash keeps burning.
Wall Street calls this
Execution & launch risk
A moonshot is only worth the bet if it actually reaches the moon. Most of the milestones that prove it are still ahead.
From the 10-K · and it's not alone
We face competition from existing and potential competitors in the telecommunications industry, including terrestrial and satellite-based network systems … including competitors who may have more resources than we do.
↳ The biggest is SpaceX's Starlink, which is rolling out its own direct-to-phone service with vastly more launch capacity and cash. AST has to win the race and the funding contest.